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To: <H-GENOCIDE@H-NET.MSU.EDU> Subject: Darfur mortality analysis by Jan Coebergh, MD: ------------------ Darfur mortality analysis by Jan Coebergh, MD: "Sudan: genocide has killed more than the tsunami," Parliamentary Brief (UK), February 2005 (Volume 9, No. 7; pages 5-7) A statistical derivation of total mortality for the Darfur conflict, based upon all extant mortality data and reports: "a total of 306,130 excess deaths between February 2003 and December 2004." Required reading for all who would presume to report on human destruction in Darfur. Moreover, Coebergh concludes, whatever total we begin with in mortality to date: "This year  looks worse than last year ." This highly informed and trenchant analysis may be downloaded in PDF format at http://www.thepolitician.org/ Further, Coebergh makes a number of important observations about mortality that are not are not readily captured in statistical form: Does it matter how many have died? --- "Yes. It gives us a correct picture of the scale of the tragedy in Darfur and helps us measure our response. Counting the dead also values them. And it allows us to properly estimate the cost in lives this war will claim in the months ahead. After all, these were, and are, preventable deaths." Underestimates of mortality --- "Several reasons for underestimating mortality exist in all these studies. All interviews would fail to detect the death of whole families. Under-reporting of neonatal and infant deaths in similar surveys has been documented. People could also be afraid that, despite assurance, reporting deaths will affect their food rations. In the MSF and WHO study, more people were absent and had disappeared than had died. It is difficult to imagine what happened to these people, but some are likely to be among the dead." "With the world losing interest, that is more rather than less likely. In all of this, it is easy to forget the children who are not born because families are separated or a husband or wife killed. Men cannot marry because without livestock and female fertility also decreases with malnutrition and stress. Nor must one forget the children who are born: rape has been widespread. Malnutrition will affect all those that survive, for the rest of their lives." ["Jan Coebergh is a doctor with an interest in epidemiology. He worked in Darfur before the present crisis"---Parliamentary Brief, February 2005 (Volume 9, No. 7); http://www.thepolitician.org/] Eric Reeves Smith College Northampton, MA 01063 firstname.lastname@example.org 413-585-3326 www.sudanreeves.org ------ End of Forwarded Message