>NCC WASHINGTON UPDATE, Vol. 8, #43, October 31, 2002
>by Bruce Craig <rbcraig@nccph.org>
>National Coordinating Committee for the Promotion of History (NCCPH)
>*****************
>
>1.  Omens, Portents, and Election Predictions
>2.  Bellesiles Resigns from Emory University
>3.  President Bush Signs Bill Promoting Historic Preservation
>4.  News Bits and Bytes: FRUS Documents Made Available; NAGPRA Grants;
>Ashcroft Declares No New "Leak" Statute Needed
>5.  Articles of Interest: Transcript of the Oral Arguments in the
>Eldred Case; "New Preservation Gateway Launched" (UNESCO webpage;
>posted 10/25/2002)
>
>
>1. OMENS, PORTENTS, AND ELECTION PREDICTIONS
>As the Tuesday (November 5) mid-term election approaches, neither the
>Republicans nor the Democrats seem to have a clear advantage in their
>highly partisan campaign for control of Congress.  Following vigorous
>travel schedules, President Bush and other political luminaries of both
>parties are crisscrossing the country making whistle-stop campaign
>appearances in the too close to call races.  Ultimately, the party that
>ends up controlling Congress will probably be determined by which does
>the better job getting supporters out to the voting booth next Tuesday,
>and on the "umbrella factor" -- whether or not the weather is nasty.
>
>To that end, how the parties target and motivate seniors (who vote in
>higher numbers than other groups), African Americans (a crucial voting
>block in several key races in the deep South), and a new political
>niche, characterized by the Washington Post as "soccer moms," (upwardly
>mobile, affluent, female voters) may prove decisive.  Watch for
>last-minute television blitzes targeted to these groups and other niche
>voters to hit the airwaves this weekend. Neither party can do much to
>control the weather on election day in states where there are tight
>races, but keep in mind, Republicans generally turn out in larger
>numbers than Democrats in inclement weather.
>
>Some political analysts find that as a whole, the American population
>is socially, culturally, and economically becoming increasingly more
>sympathetic to the Democrats.  With demographic and economic forces
>working in to the Democrats advantage, with the transition from
>industrial capitalism to post-industrial capitalism and all that spells
>in terms of work, culture, and gender, these analysts believe the
>Democrats are better positioned to deal with those changes. Republican
>strategists, however, note that the aging, more affluent population
>that tends to vote in larger numbers, favors their
>party.  Consequently, Republican strategists hold firm to the
>contention that in this election cycle, the GOP will not only continue
>to control the House of Representatives, but will increase its majority
>by up to three members; that it will wrest control of the Senate away
>from the Democrats; and that it will capture control of more than their
>share of state houses.
>
>Fact is, the Republicans are hoping to buck history.  Since 1940, the
>party whose leader occupies the White House has lost seats in the House
>of Representatives as well as in state legislatures in mid-term
>elections. George Bush, a Republican, is in the White House, ergo,
>Republicans lose seats.  In spite of the unusual factors that make this
>election less predictable, there is little reason to think that this
>election is so unusual and remarkable as to buck historical trends.
>
>That said, with the risk of going out on the proverbial limb, perhaps
>even eating crow on November 6th  -- here are our election day
>predictions! In this year's midterm elections the Republicans will
>barely hold onto their slim majority in the House, but they will
>prevail -- expect a majority of three to four members in the
>Republican's favor.
>
>In the Senate, we put high value in the historically based prediction
>system developed by political historian Allan J. Lichtman and
>geophysicist Volodia Keilis-Borok back in 1985.  Historically, their
>assessment model has correctly predicted, in advance, 87 percent of the
>midterm Senate elections from 1986 to 1998.  Based on eight diagnostic
>"keys" (these keys do not focus on personalities, issues, or strategies
>but rather on underlying structural features of senatorial elections)
>the political competition in 2002 favors the incumbent party in most
>states. This results in an advantage for Democrats who are defending
>fewer seats than the Republicans. Lichtman/Keilis-Borok predict the
>Democrats will "slightly increase their current one-seat majority."
>
>Given these possible election outcomes, when the "Lame Duck" Congress
>meets in mid-November and more importantly, when the 108th Congress
>assembles in January, President Bush and his party will find it
>increasingly difficult to advance their legislative and political agenda.
>
>2. BELLESILES RESIGNS FROM EMORY UNIVERSITY
>On October 25, 2002 Emory University announced that Michael Bellesiles
>- author of the controversial, Bancroft Prize winning book, Arming
>America: The Origins of a National Gun Culture -  resigned from his
>position as professor of history after 14 years at the Atlanta
>institution. Commenting on the sometimes nasty two-year dispute about
>his research on the infrequency of firearms in early America, the Emory
>professor asserted that he simply "could not continue to teach in what
>[he] felt is a hostile environment."
>
>Bellesiles' resignation follows on the heels of a recent investigation
>into the "scholarly integrity" of his controversial book.  After
>publication in 1999, the conservative press, the National Rifle
>Association, and eventually several historical scholars questioned some
>of Bellesiles' research methodologies and hence his conclusions.
>
>In May 2002 the National Endowment for the Humanities entered the fray
>by taking the Newberry Library to task for its awarding Professor
>Bellesiles a NEH-supported fellowship "without due consideration of the
>serious charges raised within the scholarly community about his work."
>(See "NEH Withdraws Name From Fellowship" in NCC Washington Update, Vol
>8, #21, May 23, 2002) and "Newberry Library Responds to NEH Criticism"
>in ibid, Vol 8, #22, May 31, 2002).  Once what has been characterized
>as "the Bellesiles controversy" became a question of scholarly care and
>integrity in the documentation, presentation and analysis of archival
>sources, Emory University appointed a committee of three highly
>respected historians to conduct a probe.  The committee worked
>from  May 5 to July 1 evaluating and researching allegations that
>Bellesiles engaged in the "intentional fabrication and falsification of
>research data" and "other serious deviations from accepted practices"
>of the historical profession "in the carrying out of and reporting
>results from research" with regard to probate records, 18th and 19th
>century wills, and militia census records.
>
>The distinguished independent investigative committee - composed of
>Princeton University's Stanley N. Katz, University of Chicago's Hanna
>H. Gray, and Harvard University's Laurel Thatcher Ulrich - applied
>Emory University's misconduct guidelines and the American Historical
>Association's "Statement on Standards of Professional Conduct."  The
>committee focused its investigation narrowly on five questions relating
>to Bellesiles' use of probate records that are reflected in three
>paragraphs and a table in a bulky, six hundred-page book.
>
>The committee found no "intentional fabrication or falsification of
>research data," found no evidence of "a deliberate attempt to mislead,"
>but concluded that Bellesiles demonstrated  "carelessness in the
>gathering and presentation of archival records," and that he did
>"engage in serious deviations from accepted practices in carrying out
>[and] reporting results from research." The committee speculated that
>"unfamiliarity with quantitative methods or plain incompetence" could
>explain some of the known deficiencies [in his] breakdown of
>data.  Furthermore, they concluded that Bellesiles "casual method of
>recording data. . . [his] extremely sloppy documentation [and]
>carelessness" has resulted in an "unprofessional and misleading work."
>
>In his response to the report, Bellesiles admits to being "careless,"
>he acknowledges "errors of transcription" (and has promised to correct
>them in the upcoming second edition of the book), and concurs that
>scholars probably would not be able to replicate his
>research.  Nevertheless, he asserts that "the probate records could be
>eliminated entirely and the thesis of the book would still
>stand."  Given the ferocity of the attacks against him, he fears that
>"every scholar who challenges received truth" will be investigated and
>"before long, no challenging scholarly books are published."
>
>For the Emory report and related articles of interest on this issue,
>tap into the History News Network's webpage,
><http://hnn.us/articles/1069.html>.
>
>With the committee's report now in the public domain, conservative
>organizations and gun rights groups are invigorated and are now calling
>on Columbia University to rescind the Bancroft prize it awarded to
>Bellesiles in 2001 for his, in more than one way, controversial book.
>
>3. PRESIDENT BUSH SIGNS BILL PROMOTING HISTORIC PRESERVATION
>Historians and historical preservation advocates celebrate a victory
>with President Bush's signature on the "Public Building, Property, and
>Works Act" (P.L. 107-217), which became law on August 21, 2002.  The
>measure reinforces the importance of preserving historic buildings and
>federal monuments by amending Title 40 of the United States Code,
>authorizing and enabling the General Service Administration (GSA) to
>take additional measures to ensure the conservation and preservation of
>private and public historic landmarks.
>
>In short, the new law promotes the authorization of new historical
>monuments and makes it easier to create historic monuments and more
>difficult to destroy existing ones.  Under this measure, the GSA will
>exercise greater jurisdiction in determining which landmarks and
>buildings are considered "political subdivisions or instrumentality of
>the State." The GSA is now empowered to convert any "surplus real and
>related personal property that is suitable and desirable for the use of
>historic monuments for the benefit of the public" and such property may
>be used for "revenue-producing activity" provided the activities are
>compatible with the promotion for historic monument purposes.
>
>In addition, the Act dictates that the GSA must submit an annual report
>to the President and Congress each January, reporting how it has
>"protected and enhanced" the significance of historic monuments and
>efforts it will embark upon in the upcoming fiscal year  "related to
>historic preservation."
>
>4. NEWS BITS AND BYTES
>Item #1-- FRUS Volume Released: On October 11, 2002 the Department of
>State's history office released another volume -- Vietnam 1967 --  in
>the State Department's Foreign Relations of the United States's (FRUS)
>series.  Among the issues examined in the volume are American
>diplomatic efforts to explore a "possible negotiated settlement" with
>North Vietnam, as well as "the military intensification of the war
>effort to force a peace settlement." The full text of FRUS, Volume V,
>Vietnam 1967, is posted at
><http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus/johnsonlb/v/>.
>
>Item #2 -- NAGPRA Grant Availability:  The National Park Service
>invites proposals from Indian tribes, Alaska Native villages,
>corporations, Native Hawaiian organizations, and museums possessing or
>controlling of Native American human remains or cultural items to
>submit proposals for the FY-2003 National American Graves Protection
>and Repatriation Act (NAGPRA) grants.  Tribes and museums who have not
>previously been awarded are encouraged to apply for one of the two
>types of available grants: Documentation Awards (up to $75,000) and
>Repatriation Awards (up to $15,000). Proposals must be postmarked by
>February 28, 2003. For grant forms, guidelines, and more information,
>tap into: <http://www.cr.nps.gov/nagpra/GRANTS>.
>
>Item #3 -- Ashcroft Declares No New "Leak" Statute Needed:  On October
>22, 2002 Attorney General John Ashcroft informed Congress that no new
>legislation was necessary to "combat unauthorized disclosure ('leaks')
>of classified information." The Attorney General did, however, suggest
>measures to limit unauthorized information disclosure, primarily having
>all authorized personnel sign a contract stating that a suspected
>leaker "certify under perjury" and "sets out liquidated damages."  In
>all, Ashcroft and an interagency task force reasoned that any such
>anti-disclosure legislation would not enhance or modify the
>government's ability to deter or identify leakers. Thanks to the
>Federation of American Scientists Project on Government Secrecy for
>posting a copy of Attorney General's "Task Force Report on Unauthorized
>Disclosures of Classified Information" at
><http://www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/dojleaks.html>.
>
>5. ARTICLES OF INTEREST
>Two items worth noting this week: First, the transcript of the oral
>arguments in the Supreme Court case Eric Eldred, et al., v. John D.
>Ashcroft, Attorney General that challenges Congress's 1998 Sonny Bono
>Copyright Term Extension Act.  For the transcript, tap into:
><http://cubicmetercrystal.com/log/eldred2.html>.
>
>Second, "New Preservation Gateway Launched" (UNESCO web page
>10/25/2002) describes the  National Archives of the Netherlands and the
>European Commission on Preservation and Access (ECPA) "Gateway for
>Resources and Information on Preservation (GRIP)," an Internet portal
>focusing on various aspects of document preservation." For information,
>tap into:
><http://portal.unesco.org/ci/ev.php?URL_ID=6099&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201&reload=
>1035562185 >.
>
>
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