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H-Japan
November 4, 2009
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 2009 11:48:45 -0800
From: "Tracy Timmons-Gray" <ttimmonsgray@nbr.org>
H-Net Japan members may be interested in the new NBR report released
this week- "Managing Unmet Expectations in the U.S.-Japan Alliance" by
Michael Finnegan. A summary and a link to download the report are both
below. - Tracy Timmons-Gray
"Managing Unmet Expectations in the U.S.-Japan Alliance,"
By Michael Finnegan (NBR Special Report, November 2009)
Download the PDF of the report: http://bit.ly/1rteoL
Report Summary
This report examines the U.S.-Japan alliance to answer three related
questions: Is the alliance meeting the mutual expectations of the
partners? If not, what are the potential consequences? Given the stakes
involved, what are the policy implications for the alliance?
Main Argument
The alliance is failing to meet the expectations of both the U.S. and
Japan in significant ways. For the U.S., the continuing inability of the
alliance to operationalize itself in the core mission of the defense of
Japan as well as to be operationally relevant in the region remain the
key failings. For Japan, the primary growing concern is the U.S. meeting
and sustaining commitments to the defense of Japan, including extended
deterrence. At base, both partners have reasonable reasons to feel their
core expectations are not being met nor will be met by the current
trajectory. Thus, despite public statements about strength, the alliance
is actually quite brittle precisely at a time when both allies are
perhaps depending on it more than ever. In a crisis the exposure of the
alliance's inability to meet key expectations is likely to engender a
subsequent significant and deal-breaking breakdown of confidence,
leading one or both partners to consider alternatives beyond the current
configuration.
Policy Implications
- The efforts of alliance leaders to sustain the alliance "as is" put
both nations at risk. The allies must develop a more sustainable set of
expectations to form the basis of the alliance.
- Current efforts of policymakers to strengthen, deepen, or broaden the
alliance fall short and in meaningful ways distract the allies from
meeting the central expectation of the alliance-the defense of Japan.
- Leaders must recognize that both countries have several alternatives
to the current alliance relationship, which although carrying
significant downsides, must be considered in policy calculations.
- Policy leaders should consider implementation of a new "grand bargain"
on Japanese defense, wherein the primary focus of the alliance reverts
to the defense of Japan, Japan assumes primacy in this area, and newly
clarified U.S. support commitments are met.
Learn more about NBR's Managing Unmet Expectations: The Japan-U.S.
Security Alliance project by visiting the NBR website at:
http://www.nbr.org/research/initiative.aspx?id=676b087d-2fb8-466f-aa02-2d353bce4b3d
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The Editors
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