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H-Japan
November 4, 2009
From: Michael Smitka <smitkam@wlu.edu>
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2009 08:50:55 -0500
Japan is going through a historically unprecedented change -- to my
knowledge it is the first society to see population decline other than
through famine, pestilence and war. [OK, the Shakers ... ] But shifts
in the labor market, education and overall income are better
explanations than government policy -- Italy and Spain are very
similar in demographics (and Italy in children living at home and
other features).
This certainly is making for an interesting generational change (I'm
working on a book on shifts in the economy and society over the past
quarter century). Historians might actually be good at telling that
tale, since they can bring the perspective of past transitions.
As to higher education, looking at the numbers shows lots of change,
from rising rates of progression (about half of all high school
graduates -- and compared to the US high school completion rates are
high), to the rapid decline (collapse?!) of junior colleges and the
shift of women towards 4-year-colleges, and now falling cohort size
overwhelming these trends (overall enrollment rates seem to have
peaked at about 50%). Since higher education is financed on a tuition-
driven model (even if subsidized by the central government), failure
to fill all seats leads fairly directly to pay cuts for faculty and
(increasingly) job cuts and the closing of schools.
Of course the same thing has happened at other levels, initially
offset by decreasing class sizes in elementary schools and so on. The
relevant budget (from the J Stat Yearbook) reflects that, dropping
from ¥4.85 tril in 2004 to 3.96 tril in 2006 (-18%), though I don't
know whether part of the Koizumi "trinity" local finance reforms have
shifted some of the budget from central government to local government
books -- the corresponding tables for prefectural and local budgets
suggest not as they show (small) declines in the education category.
Just to pick one example, middle school enrollments peaked at 6 mil
around 1985, falling to 3.6 mil in 2007 (-40%) though the number of
schools (1995 peak abt 11,200 down to 10,900 in 2007, or -3%) and the
number of teachers (-13%) haven't fallen commensurate to that.
There are bound to be historians of education on the list; I'd love to
hear their perspective.
mike smitka
On Oct 29, 2009, at 1:20 PM, H-Japan Editor wrote:
>
> H-Japan
> October 30, 2009
>
>
> From: "Wolf, Thomas Phillip" <tpwolf@ius.edu>
> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:19:38 -0400
-------------------------End H-Japan Message------------------------
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