H-ASIA
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From: David Cowhig <dcowhig@public3.bta.net.cn>
Subject: H-ASIA: Web Forum -- An Analysis of Chinese Policy Alternatives
    Over         the Next Several Days

----

http://bbs.peopledaily.com.cn/cgi-bbs/ReadFile?whichfile=2154579&typeid=14

Interesting analysis in this anonymous posting on the Strong Country
Forum.


An Analysis of Chinese Policy Alternatives Over the Next Several Days
April 16, 2001.  10:12

----------------------

[Note: Here are the main points
-- The Chinese government greatly fears a nationalist over reaction
against the Chinese government.
-- If China is in the right on the collision, demand an apology.
-- If China is in the wrong over the collision, China is still right and
the U.S. is in the wrong.  China should in that case de-emphasize the
collision and play up the presence of a U.S. spy plane near China. Thus
the collision happened because the U.S. plane was there. China should
still demand an apology.

Several of the less important paragraphs are omitted,  some others are
summarized. End note]

----------------------

Summary/translation:

The Chinese side let the Americans go. The aftermath showed that I was
right.  The U.S. side believes that it won because the U.S. took a hard
line and so has been encouraged.  President Bush's popularity rating
went up. The U.S. will  keep on insisting ever more strongly that it is
not guilty.  The U.S. side will go further, blaming China for the
collision, taking advantage of its  victory to continue its attack so as
to force the Chinese side to return the aircraft.  The U.S. side will
even go so far as to spread rumor to demonize China and so the
conservatives will be in control in the United States. Moreover,
international opinion has become confused and China's international
image is suffering. Moreover,  this has stirred up strong emotions
within China among extremists who do not believe in and are disappointed
in the Chinese government. This is making the Chinese government lose
the confidence of the Chinese people and severely wounding the
self-respect of the Chinese nation.  The long-term effects of this will
be that the United States will maintain a tough line on China and this
will become the long term China policy of the United States.  China
domestically will face pressure on the government from the disappointed
and the dissatisfied so domestic problems will be piled atop problems in
China's foreign relations.

I can predict what the policy of the Chinese government will be.
Initially the United States made no concessions to China. When China
released the crewmembers, the U.S. did not give China any face, thereby
angering the Chinese side. The main focus of the Chinese government,
however, is perhaps on preventing nationalistic emotions from getting
too excited and  so becoming an obstacle to the Chinese government's
"long-term strategy".   If it should happen that Chinese nationalist
emotions get very agitated,   then the Chinese government will be forced
to take a hard line in the April 18 negotiations with the United
States.  Thus the negotiations might drag in a seesawing struggle and
the claims could take a long time to settle.   If the emotions of the
Chinese people are effectively controlled, then the negotiations might
proceed fairly smoothly, with the Chinese side taking a strong position
in its statements all the while making real concessions.   The U.S.
aircraft will return to the United States after repair work done with
the help of Chinese technicians.   However, no matter what happens, the
concessions the Chinese government makes for the sake of preserving U.S.
– China relations will harm the self-respect of the Chinese people, and
the national image will suffer somewhat.

Now I’ll discuss some strategies that China can adopt in the future to
move things as much as possible in a direction that is advantageous to
China.  Now, I will begin with the assumption that the Chinese side has
sufficient proof that the mid air collision was caused by an American
error.   In that case, we can adopt the following strategies:

(1) Just as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson has said, China
will object to the U.S. effort to blame the Chinese side and state that
China has sufficient evidence to show that a U.S. operating error caused
the mid air collision.  The Chinese side will stress that the U.S.  is
violating international law by harming Chinese national security in its
operation of a reconnaissance aircraft over China’s exclusive economic
zone.


(2) If the U.S. side continues to claim that it didn’t make a mistake
and refuses to apologize, the Chinese side should ask no more for a U.S.
apology but state that China places great importance on U.S. – China
relations and that the Chinese side has made great efforts out of this
concern.  The Chinese side hopes that this collision can be handled
reasonably and fairly but China will stop at no sacrifice needed to
maintain its own legal rights.

This way, the Chinese side can show that China will make no concessions
and so is willing to take however long it takes on this issue with the
United States.  This will force the United States to choose between a
long-term policy of exchanges with China and Cold War.  Thus the United
States will reflect carefully to avoid further irritation to the Chinese
side.   By this time, that is when the April 18 talks are about to
begin, the Chinese side will have the initiative in the negotiations.



(3) During the negotiations, China should present its evidence and arm
itself with international and Chinese domestic law.  …. As long as the
U.S. side is unable to present evidence and use applicable laws to
respond to the Chinese charges, China should make no response to U.S.
sly arguments.  China should proclaim that it is prepared to make a
judgment about the plane based on international and Chinese law!  Then
China can temporarily break off the talks.

Then the U.S. side will respond that if the Chinese side does that, then
there will be severe damage to U.S. – China relations (chedi polie) .
However, the Chinese side should realize that “U.S. – China” relations
are the trump card in America’s hand, but that trump card is like a
two-edged sword.  If U.S. – China relations are damaged, then China will
suffer greatly but the U.S. would not benefit from it and will certainly
suffer damage from the various resistance it will meet with from
China.   Damaging U.S. – China relations is the bottom card in the U.S.
deck, and it would not be easy for the U.S. to come to such an historic
decision.  So the relations between the two countries would enter a
sensitive period.

During this sensitive period, China can observe changes in the United
States.  The senior people of the U.S. “contact with China group” will
do their lobbying, and after some tense, secret contacts the Chinese
side can announce, that for the sake of U.S. – China relations and world
peace, China is willing to make the appropriate concession and reopen
negotiations.

Once the negotiations are reopened, the Chinese side can take its time
and set its price.

After negotiations resume, China can set its conditions for not pursuing
legal action over the fate of the plane:
-- A public apology to the Chinese nation.
-- Compensation to be paid for the losses suffered by the Chinese side
-- The continued examination of the U.S. plane by the Chinese side.
-- Signing of an agreement that the U.S. will carry out no more spy
flights against China to prevent this incident from recurring.


Obviously, it would be very difficult for the U.S. side to meet the
conditions of the Chinese side.  However, we should note that the
assumption upon which the discussion above was based is that the Chinese
side has evidence that the U.S. side is at fault and the U.S. does not
have evidence to contradict this claim.  This point is very important.

[Several paragraphs not summarized]

However, if China does not have sufficient proof to show the U.S. side
is responsible, and that the Chinese side is at fault, we can take the
following position:

(1) The Foreign Ministry spokesman that the right of free passage does
not apply to a U.S.  reconnaissance aircraft over flying China’s
exclusive economic zone because the aircraft is a threat to China’s
national security.  This dangerous activity near China’s seacoast is a
violation of international law.  The landing of the U.S. reconnaissance
plane without permission to enter Chinese airspace is the action of a
hegemon, which has blatant disregard for Chinese sovereignty.  The U.S.
should not use obsolete recordings to cloud the issue.

This approach stresses the clearly mistaken action of the U.S. and
leaves the mid air collision in the background.  No matter whether the
Chinese aircraft collided deliberately or accidentally with the U.S.
aircraft, the Chinese side is the defender.  The root cause of the
collision is that the U.S. has been carrying out spy flights near China
for a long time.  Therefore the basic fault lies with the U.S. and not
with China.  Taking this argument, even if the Chinese pilot actually
collided with the U.S. aircraft, China’s responsibility is quite small
and since China lost an aircraft and a pilot, it is the victim and can
still win some sympathy on the international scene.

When the negotiations begin, the Chinese side should demand that the
U.S. side show all its evidence to support its claim.  The Chinese side
can take its time about presenting its own evidence. …. The U.S. side,
eager to get its plane back, may well show all its evidence.  China
should have a cooperative attitude and use this to bring down the
temperature of the debate about the collision.  If it should turn out
that the fault for the collision is on the Chinese side, China should
not apologize to the U.S. since the U.S. aircraft was in the area in
violation of international law and the victim was China, after all.  The
Chinese side should accordingly demand compensation for the pilot’s
family and for the aircraft.    The Americans should pay the pilot’s
family but compensation for the aircraft is not important. China’s real
compensation is the U.S. technology on the U.S. aircraft.

The Chinese side will have to take care that the U.S. does not portray
China as inflicting damage on U.S. – China relations since that will
strengthen the “China threat” theory and give the U.S. another excuse to
take a hard line in its relations with China.   China should stress that
it is the victim and that it is defending itself, and expose the true
face of U.S. hegemonism.


………..

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